← The Light Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at The Light Store Championship
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.0%
avg ELO -7.4 per match
expected value
43.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1366
· median 1366
· range 1216–1516
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1251
Q3 1457
1593
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 19.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 14.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.2% | -9.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -7.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.3 |
